With the World Cup creeping upon us quickly, England boss Gareth Southgate has a number of big decisions to make. Starting with who will be his #1 goalkeeper in Qatar. There are four clear options, all of whom are their club sides' first-choice keepers and all playing week in, week out in the Premier League. Jordan Pickford, Aaron Ramsdale, Nick Pope and Dean Henderson will all compete for the starting position.
Southgate has always said that he’ll pick players on merit and form, rather than reputation so we have to look at who is currently performing the best at club level, who fits into his system and who will likely book their plane ticket to Qatar.
Jordan Pickford
Everton’s #1, Jordan Pickford has often been preferred by Southgate. He was given his U21 debut as well as his senior debut from Southgate and played every minute of England’s Euro 2020 journey, keeping five clean sheets. He has also played two of the four Nations League games this summer, however, failed to keep a clean sheet.
Last season, he kept seven clean sheets in 35 Premier League games in a struggling Everton side who only narrowly avoided relegation. This season, he’s kept a single clean sheet, conceding six goals in six games.
Everton have lined up four times this season with a back five, consisting of the traditional three centre backs and two wide defenders. Using the three centre backs is also the system that Southgate favours for England, playing with two wing backs to accompany the three centre backs. This means that Pickford is used to playing in that system, however, it is obvious that it isn’t working at Everton so far this season.
Pickford is often selected for his leadership qualities, his shot-stopping (his XG against is 9.4 this season) and his distribution. In the league this season, Pickford has a pass percentage of 48%, of which 62.1% were over 40 yards, with an average length of 48.6 yards. This is important, especially in a ‘three at the back’ system. Rather than playing the ball short to his centre-backs, Pickford will look to stretch the play to either his wingbacks or by going long up the pitch (75% of his goal kicks go long).
We know that Pickford will be on the plane to Qatar as he is a favourite of Southgate’s. There’s little doubt that he deserves it, however, there’s a debate as to whether he should start.
Aaron Ramsdale
Arsenal’s #1, Aaron Ramsdale has been in good form this season. Across six games, he’s conceded seven goals, however, has kept two clean sheets. Last season, Ramsdale, through 34 games kept 12 clean sheets and had to pick the ball out the net 39 times. He helped Arsenal achieve Europa League football and without a doubt is a quality talent at just 24 years old.
Arsenal favour a back four, however, have had injuries in defensive positions all season. England’s Ben White has played right back all season, despite playing centre-back 34 times last season. At left back, Oleksandr Zinchenko has featured five times as has Kieran Tierney. At centre half, Gabriel and William Saliba have been mainstays. Tajehiro Tomiyasu has also made five substitute appearances in the Premier League. What this suggests is that, aside from his centre backs, Ramsdale hasn’t had a solid, consistent defensive line in front of him all season. If Arsenal can figure out their injury issues, decide on a best back four and consistently play with that back four, the chances of their defence improving is high. It will also help Ramsdale's game to have a consistent back four ahead of him week in, week out.
Ramsdale has a 68.2% pass success rate in the Premier League this season, however, ‘WhoScored’ suggest that long passing is a weakness in his game. He knows how to command his area and is good at communicating with defenders, despite having multiple different faces in front of him across the season.
Ramsdale should be preferred to Pickford with a four man defence in front of him. He’s more used to the four at the back system. Interestingly, there is little difference between Ramsdale and Pickford with regards to sweeping. There’s a 0.7 differential with when considering the average distance of all defensive actions from their goal.
Ramsdale can be confident of making it on the plane, however, we know that Southgate favours Pickford. With that being said, it all depends on how Ramsdale performs in the upcoming Nations League games as to whether he will be England's #1.
Nick Pope
Newcastle’s Nick Pope has amazing stats for England. With just eight caps, he’s kept seven clean sheets. A caveat to that is that he’s never featured in a competitive, tournament fixture. This season in the Premier League, he’s featured in all seven of Newcastle’s games, keeping three clean sheets. Eddie Howe’s Newcastle have lined up in a 4-3-3 in every game this season, with a fairly consistent back four throughout.
He’s faced 39 shots on his goal, making 30 saves at a percentage of 76.9, only being beaten by Pickford, who holds a percentage of 78.8. With just 0.14 errors leading to a goal per 90, Pope is certainly efficient, which is slightly lower than Pickford. He concedes fewer goals than expected, conceding 0.34 fewer goals than the chances against him might suggest he might.
His distribution is questionable, however. His pass completion rate is just 38.8% over 40 yards. The average length of his passes is 42.2 yards which is longer than Ramsdale but shorter than Pickford’s.
At 6’4, his ability to stop crosses should be better than his stats suggest. Of 62 crosses into his box, he’s stopped just 4 crosses at a percentage of 6.5%. For example, against Liverpool, of the 16 crosses that were sent into his box, Pope only claimed one.
Again, like Ramsdale, he should be able to get a seat on the plane, however, due to the fact that he hasn’t quite proven himself to Southgate just yet, he’s unlikely to feature at all.
Dean Henderson
Although Henderson is in the current Nations League squad, it would be surprising to see him in the World Cup squad. He’s definitely increased his chances of making the World Cup squad by securing a loan move away from Manchester United, however. He actually plays regularly for Nottingham Forest now instead of being back-up to David de Gea at United. With that being said, Forest are second bottom of the league with just four points.
Henderson has kept a single clean sheet across seven games, conceding a huge 17 goals. Forest have lined up with either a flat back five or a five at the back with wing backs this season, meaning that Henderson is much more used to playing with a more protective defence. It also suggests that he'd be ready to step into Southgate's current preferred system with a prior understanding of the formation.
With that being said, Forest have defensive issues. Henderson is constantly working, making an average of 2.29 saves per 90. He concedes an average of 2.43 goals per 90, which is worrying for any goalkeeper. He does have a 60.5% save percentage, however, there’s a far more worrying stat underlying Henderson’s game. The Manchester United loanee has made five errors this season that have lead to goals against him. This possibly suggests that he is quite erratic when it comes to goalkeeping and could also suggest that he often loses concentration. If he were to be named the #1, it's worth remembering that during the World Cup, players are playing multiple times a week and any lack of concentration can cost them dearly.
Many debate whether Henderson should have been favoured as Manchester United’s #1 over de Gea, especially with the introduction of Erik ten Hag, a manager that likes his goalkeepers to be able to play out from the back. Henderson’s distribution and ability to play as a sweeper keeper is highly regarded, especially in comparison to de Gea. With that being said, the stats suggest that he is only marginally better than that of his fellow English keepers.
The average length of his passes this season is 43.4 yards, which could be slightly skewed due to him playing with defenders playing a deeper line. He averages 1.14 defensive actions outside of his box per 90 minutes, with an average distance of 14.2 yards from his own goal. Comparing this to Pope, who averages more defensive actions outside of his penalty area at a higher distance from his own goal, it would suggest that he isn't asked to play sweeper at Forest. Ramsdale is the only goalkeeper of the four discussed that averages under one defensive action outside of his box per 90 minutes.
Ultimately, Henderson would need some luck to make it to Qatar. His form simply hasn’t been good enough this season, despite playing more minutes in the Premier League than the enritirty of last season. Unfortunately for Henderson, there are simply three better goal keepers better than him. At 25, however, he has at least two world cup campaigns left in him. It's worth noting, however, that Henderson has saved two penalties already this season and with England's history in penalty shootouts, it may be worth having Henderson as an option.
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